Interview with Miguel Jaramillo , published in El Comercio , Wednesday January 6, 2010
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Miguel Jaramillo Guru or prophet, but his experience in labor economics and social policy allows you to speak with authority on what happens in the labor market and what we might expect this year.
By: Azucena Leon Torres
2009 is expected to regulate labor wrong ...
labor market performance in 2009 was not bad. Looking at the information obtained from the monthly survey of employment change (the third quarter) we see that in cumulative terms this indicator, despite the crisis, has shown some growth. It is true that there have been disparate behaviors, such as mining and construction, which results were negative. However, overall, the figures have been positive.
But if you take the figures for the third quarter and part of the room (or where figures are slightly negative or zero growth), we see that the crisis is only beginning to be reflected in employment.
The figures show that the slowdown in employment was lagging behind that of the productive sector. And lay off workers is not easy. Not only because much money is invested in specific training, but also because the selection processes are often costly. When employers see that the fall in production and sales is not temporary, then just start firing people, which is what happened to the textile and clothing sector.
Labour Minister said the layoffs stopped and the 150,000 workers who were affected by the crisis and were reabsorbed by the market. Is the worst is over for the job?
It seems premature to make that claim, because in both behind the continued production, employment will remain the same pattern. Only when the production has hit bottom and begin to recover steadily, employment will rise, but one or two quarters later.
Does employment recovery will quickly or anemic?
is true that the strength of our domestic market helped prevent employment fell brutally or that unemployment shot up (as in other markets), but we are not an island. Employment in the other urban areas fell more than in Lima and that is a sign that the crisis can also affect us. For now, I see a sustained recovery, only a stabilization of the figures and it is likely that this trend will continue in the coming months, as there are sectors such as manufacturing that are still showing unstable behavior.
How long will it take to re-register these pre-crisis growth figures?
It least two quarters. Maybe for the second half of 2010 we start to see a positive trend for the effect is expected to have the construction sector. Why
each point of GDP growth of employment is growing much? It was said that for every two was half a point ...
That depends on the composition of growth. To the extent that is linked to investment, this generates more jobs. I think the ratio is for every two points of GDP expands employment by approximately 1.7%. In the U.S.
Analysts asked President Barack Obama enact further measures to expedite the recovery of employment. Does the government of García did enough to compensate those who were affected by the crisis and could do more?
The main factor that made the Peruvian labor market did not suffer as much as in other countries was the same market dynamics, because when a Peruvian is fired immediately manages to generate a subsistence activity. Although I believe that job training programs promoted by the Ministry of Labour (type Building Peru) can help a lot more in terms of relocating employees.
Revalora Peru "did not seem a good alternative?
The problem is that you can not launch new programs in a context of crisis and claim to have rapid effects. Revalora Peru began to think about when the crisis was already installed. Run a public budget and hire companies for training is something that takes time.
But was it a success or not?
My impression is that its impact was very limited. A very clear lesson is that if you do not have institutional mechanisms to respond quickly to the crisis, the government's role will be limited. If you really want to do something you have to start thinking about the next crisis (no longer in it) and actually have programs that can grow in adverse circumstances, such as Building Peru, which are basically temporary employment programs (focused) aimed at people with low employability (70% women). With some adjustments to this program can be helpful in the future.
And the state purchasing program Myperú?
Well, it certainly is an interesting initiative because it encourages the production of micro and small enterprises, and with it employment. But look more closely what is their real impact.
A study by the Institute of Development Research (from France) showed that in 2009 people working in informal enterprises reached almost 6 million. Are the changes to the law Mype had an impact?
Very little. Basically because there was a consistent effort in promoting its implementation.
What was missing?, Where many ministers and announced measures to mypes took as its theme the flag ...
Everything. Never implemented anything. The law raises good things, but there were too many ministerial changes and transfers of the item (the job went to production sector). The issue never took off.
"The minimum wage work to formalize? The Mintra tune a proposal to establish a wage differential by sector and company size, "this is the best way out?
In an economy as diverse as Peru has no meaning that the minimum wage is the same in Lima and Huancavelica. There are regions where the average wage is below the minimum wage, that is something that has neither head nor tail. If you have different policies in this regard, it is the best solution, it is, no doubt.
Miguel Jaramillo Guru or prophet, but his experience in labor economics and social policy allows you to speak with authority on what happens in the labor market and what we might expect this year.
By: Azucena Leon Torres
2009 is expected to regulate labor wrong ...
labor market performance in 2009 was not bad. Looking at the information obtained from the monthly survey of employment change (the third quarter) we see that in cumulative terms this indicator, despite the crisis, has shown some growth. It is true that there have been disparate behaviors, such as mining and construction, which results were negative. However, overall, the figures have been positive.
But if you take the figures for the third quarter and part of the room (or where figures are slightly negative or zero growth), we see that the crisis is only beginning to be reflected in employment.
The figures show that the slowdown in employment was lagging behind that of the productive sector. And lay off workers is not easy. Not only because much money is invested in specific training, but also because the selection processes are often costly. When employers see that the fall in production and sales is not temporary, then just start firing people, which is what happened to the textile and clothing sector.
Labour Minister said the layoffs stopped and the 150,000 workers who were affected by the crisis and were reabsorbed by the market. Is the worst is over for the job?
It seems premature to make that claim, because in both behind the continued production, employment will remain the same pattern. Only when the production has hit bottom and begin to recover steadily, employment will rise, but one or two quarters later.
Does employment recovery will quickly or anemic?
is true that the strength of our domestic market helped prevent employment fell brutally or that unemployment shot up (as in other markets), but we are not an island. Employment in the other urban areas fell more than in Lima and that is a sign that the crisis can also affect us. For now, I see a sustained recovery, only a stabilization of the figures and it is likely that this trend will continue in the coming months, as there are sectors such as manufacturing that are still showing unstable behavior.
How long will it take to re-register these pre-crisis growth figures?
It least two quarters. Maybe for the second half of 2010 we start to see a positive trend for the effect is expected to have the construction sector. Why
each point of GDP growth of employment is growing much? It was said that for every two was half a point ...
That depends on the composition of growth. To the extent that is linked to investment, this generates more jobs. I think the ratio is for every two points of GDP expands employment by approximately 1.7%. In the U.S.
Analysts asked President Barack Obama enact further measures to expedite the recovery of employment. Does the government of García did enough to compensate those who were affected by the crisis and could do more?
The main factor that made the Peruvian labor market did not suffer as much as in other countries was the same market dynamics, because when a Peruvian is fired immediately manages to generate a subsistence activity. Although I believe that job training programs promoted by the Ministry of Labour (type Building Peru) can help a lot more in terms of relocating employees.
Revalora Peru "did not seem a good alternative?
The problem is that you can not launch new programs in a context of crisis and claim to have rapid effects. Revalora Peru began to think about when the crisis was already installed. Run a public budget and hire companies for training is something that takes time.
But was it a success or not?
My impression is that its impact was very limited. A very clear lesson is that if you do not have institutional mechanisms to respond quickly to the crisis, the government's role will be limited. If you really want to do something you have to start thinking about the next crisis (no longer in it) and actually have programs that can grow in adverse circumstances, such as Building Peru, which are basically temporary employment programs (focused) aimed at people with low employability (70% women). With some adjustments to this program can be helpful in the future.
And the state purchasing program Myperú?
Well, it certainly is an interesting initiative because it encourages the production of micro and small enterprises, and with it employment. But look more closely what is their real impact.
A study by the Institute of Development Research (from France) showed that in 2009 people working in informal enterprises reached almost 6 million. Are the changes to the law Mype had an impact?
Very little. Basically because there was a consistent effort in promoting its implementation.
What was missing?, Where many ministers and announced measures to mypes took as its theme the flag ...
Everything. Never implemented anything. The law raises good things, but there were too many ministerial changes and transfers of the item (the job went to production sector). The issue never took off.
"The minimum wage work to formalize? The Mintra tune a proposal to establish a wage differential by sector and company size, "this is the best way out?
In an economy as diverse as Peru has no meaning that the minimum wage is the same in Lima and Huancavelica. There are regions where the average wage is below the minimum wage, that is something that has neither head nor tail. If you have different policies in this regard, it is the best solution, it is, no doubt.
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